Fox News on April 26, 2019, published an article by Newt Gingrich on China’s plan to supplant the United States as global superpower. Vladimir Putin was guest of honor in April 2019 when 40 world leaders met in China’s capital for a forum on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In the view of “Varldsinbordeskriget” Putin’s statements at the forum indicate that Russia’s grand strategy is focusing on strengthening its Eurasian project and supporting China. Another Asian challenger to the United States and the West, Iran, is also supporting BRI. For excerpts from Gingrich’s article see below:
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…the BRI, China’s aggressive tactics used in the race to 5G, the militarization of the South China Sea, the theft of intellectual property, and discriminatory business practices all work collectively to advance China’s economic, military, and political influence across the globe.
In my new book, “Trump vs China: America’s Greatest Challenge,” which will be released in October 2019, I describe China’s challenge to the rules-based world order and how, as a result, American interests and security are being put at risk.
Sun Tzu, one of the most famous (and possibly most legendary) Chinese military thinkers stressed that you must know both yourself and your opponent in order to be successful in competitions. According to Sun Tzu, the attributed author of “The Art of War,” by having an understanding of both contenders, “you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.”
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One of the most revealing comparisons to Chinese strategy is the game wei qi, which is said to have originated in China thousands of years ago. Wei qi — more commonly known by its Japanese name “Go” in the West — is a game played with two players using a checkered board lined with 19 horizontal and 19 vertical lines. One player has 180 white round stones and another has 181 black round stones. The players take turns placing their stones on the board one at a time on the intersections of the checker lines.
The goal of the game is to capture the most territory either by encircling empty spaces or your opponent’s pieces on the board. The player with the most territory after all the pieces have been played, or after both players pass on their turns, wins.
Go is an incredibly complex game due to the number of possible moves and board configurations. As the game progresses, there are multiple invasions, engagements, fights, and confrontations between players that occur in all different areas of the board at the same time. Moreover, it is a lengthy game that requires players to capitalize on short-term victories – but to never lose sight of the long-term strategy.
In a paper analyzing Chinese strategic thinking, Dr. David Lai, now the research professor of Asian Security Studies at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, argues that the Chinese approach to strategy is reflected in Go. The American approach to strategic thinking, Lai argues, is reflected in chess.
American strategy relies on our technological superiority and capabilities. The U.S. focuses on force-on-force competition that seeks the result of total victory over the opponent. In chess, there are pieces that are more powerful than others that are deployed with the objective of capturing the opponent’s king. Every move is directed toward protecting your own king and seizing your opponent’s. In this way, chess is narrowly focused.
Chess players must also preserve their stronger pieces to keep the balance of power in their favor and ensure a better chance of victory. The player with the most powerful pieces in play during the game will likely win.
In Go, every stone is equal. Players can unleash massive amounts of potential power by creatively and tactically placing their stones. All stones placed on the board work in close connection with one another, as each individual is a part of a larger, bigger strategy.
Moreover, in Go there are multiple campaigns, pursuits, battles, and maneuvers happening at the same time across the board. As the board is constantly changing in complex, subtle, and dynamic ways, players must always have a sharp awareness of the overall situation.
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Total, decisive, and complete defeat of an opponent is not typically an attainable objective. Usually, games are won by just a few points.
Dr. Lai notes that playing Go with a chess approach is dangerous. Similarly, it will be dangerous for the U.S. to continue to approach the challenges we face with China without understanding and seeing the totality and breadth of their strategy.
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We must examine all [Chinese] campaigns — in addition to others — collectively. We must understand this go-based approach, rather than look at each endeavor as an independent challenge. Each of China’s campaigns work in concert with one another and will ultimately result in China’s emergence as a global hegemon.
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Moreover, the United States must develop an American-based strategy in this new era of competition that is focused on our strength, capabilities, Only then can…the U.S…emerge prosperous, successful, and stronger than ever.
Comment: Deciphering Sun Tzu’s ”Art of War” in the West is basic to understand Chinese grand strategy. Dr. Lai has explained how China uses the concept of ”shi” in their grand strategy. ”Shi” can be translated as ”the alignment of forces” to be used for ensure victory over a superior force. In Chapter 5 of his book Sun Tzu (”Energy”), to quote Dr. Lai, ”four key aspects of shi are discussed”.
First, it is the idea of qi and zheng. Zheng is the regular way of doing things, or in military terms, the regular order of battle. A commander deploys troops in regular (zheng) ways. However, the commander must mobilize his troops to engage the enemy in extraordinary (qi) ways. Zheng is, in essence, a given. It is open knowledge to friends and foes. Yet qi is a variable and its variation inexhaustible.
The second aspect of shi is about creating an overwhelming force with irresistible unleashing power (a grindstone against eggs, and the strike of a hawk at its prey).
”The third aspect of shi is about developing a favorable situation with great potential to achieve the political objectives.
Finally, shi is about taking and maintaining the initiative.
Sun Tzu stated: “those skilled at making the enemy move do so by creating a situation to which he must conform.”
He maintains that these key concepts are vital to victory; one must study and master them during peacetime; and it will be too late to consult experts (books or specialists) when grave occasions arise.
For more details on how to interpret the classics of China strategy see David Lai, ”Learning from the Stones: A Go Approach to Mastering China’s strategic concept” (2004).